NFL Desk · Buccaneers · Article 016 · By Cash Emerson Roper · October 29, 2026 · 2:21 PM ET

Baker Mayfield Is Not the Problem in Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers started the 2025 season on a tear: 6–2, with the franchise's best start since 2021. Over that eight-game span, Tampa Bay beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks on the road, won at Houston on Monday night, and handled a talented San Francisco team, 30–19.

There is no easy way to say this: since then, the Bucs have been one of the worst teams in the sport, and things are not looking up. Over the final nine games of 2025, Tampa Bay went 2–7, beating only Arizona and Carolina — two bad teams that looked like they could have been beaten by North Dakota State on any given Sunday. The Bucs finished 8–9 and lost the NFC South to Carolina on a tiebreaker.

This season has not looked any better. Tampa Bay is 2–5 in 2026, with losses to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Minnesota, Green Bay and Pittsburgh, and wins only over Dallas and Carolina. All five losses have come by a touchdown or less. The defense is by far the better side of the ball; the offense leaves a lot to be desired — and there is no real shocker as to why. Through seven games, Tampa Bay ranks tied for 17th in points per game (23.1) and 26th in yards per game (296.9). The rushing game has actually been a strength — third in the league at 146.4 yards per game — but the passing game is last in the NFL at 150.4 net yards per game, and the line has already allowed 22 sacks.

It started with the succession

To understand what is ailing the Buccaneers, we have to look back at February 2022, when Tom Brady announced his retirement. That followed the 2021 season, which ended with the Bucs losing to the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round — a loss sealed when Todd Bowles called an all-out Cover 0 blitz and Cooper Kupp beat single coverage for a 44-yard catch that set up the Rams' game-winning field goal.

Why does Brady retiring have anything to do with Buccaneers management? Because of what happened over the next five weeks. Tampa sports talk on WDAE — and every national outlet — was consumed by talk of Brady unretiring. Sure enough, on March 13, Brady announced he was coming back for another season. Seventeen days later, on March 30, Bruce Arians stepped down and Todd Bowles was promoted to head coach.

There has been a lot of speculation surrounding that sequence, and some of it came from Arians himself: he said Brady's return made stepping down a "no-brainer," and that he most likely would have remained head coach if Brady had stayed retired. Arians also said there was never any friction between him and Brady. Personally, I highly doubt it. But who knows?

Here is what is reported fact: the timeline, and that Brady had advance knowledge of the plan. Whether Brady demanded Arians out is speculation. Nobody outside that building knows exactly what was said. I know the timeline — and I know which coach Brady could run his own offense under. That read is supported, at least, by what did not change: when Bowles moved up to head coach, Byron Leftwich — Arians' offensive coordinator — remained in the same job.

The coordinator drain

A year later, Brady rode off into the Fox media sunset, and Leftwich was fired. After that, the Bucs made a string of great hires on the offensive side of the ball — specifically, two offensive minds in 2023 and 2024.

In 2023, Jason Licht hired Dave Canales, and Tampa Bay's offense improved immediately. Acquiring Baker Mayfield definitely helped, but the offense came back to life under Canales: the Bucs scored about two more points per game than the season before, and Mayfield had the best season of his career to that point. Unfortunately, the entire league noticed — including the division-rival Carolina Panthers, who hired Canales as their head coach.

Looking to fill the same job a year later, Licht brought in another offensive mastermind, Liam Coen. In 2024 under Coen, the Bucs averaged 29.5 points and 399.5 yards per game, and Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns with a 106.8 passer rating. Again, the league took notice, and cross-state rival Jacksonville hired Coen to take over its team.

Last season, Josh Grizzard had the offense humming through the 6–2 start — but the 2–7 second-half collapse cost him his job. Thankfully — and yes, that is sarcasm, if you couldn't tell — Jason Licht widened his coaching search to the far ends of the earth. He finally landed in Atlanta, Georgia, and made the steal of the century by hiring Zac Robinson away from the Falcons, the epitome of offensive success last season.

Now for Bowles

Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator. Since he arrived in Tampa in 2019, the Buccaneers lead the entire NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed, fewest yards per carry allowed and fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. And when Tampa Bay won Super Bowl LV, it was Bowles' defense that held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out of the end zone entirely. That's it. My mom told me if I have nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all — so there's the one thing.

Even this season, the defense is doing its job — third in the league in yards allowed and second against the run — and it still is not enough, because the passing defense sits 14th, with quarterbacks completing 65.0 percent of their throws against it.

Point A: Todd Bowles became head coach of the New York Jets in 2015 and lasted four seasons. If a coach was hired by the New York Jets between 2000 and 2026, do not let that person into your organization in any capacity. EVER.

Point B: Bowles went 24–40 with the Jets — 16 games under .500.

Point C: Do what the two successful organizations in Tampa do. Build from within, develop talent, and have a coach who means as much to the fans as he does to the players — like Jon Cooper with the Lightning and Kevin Cash with the Rays, two teams that do more with less than almost any franchises in professional sports.

And here is the kicker — the stat that tells you how good a coach really is: one-score games. Bowles' Buccaneers are 19–24 in games decided by one score. That is a direct reflection of poorly designed game plans and poorly managed games: a coaching staff not analyzing, not adjusting — especially at halftime — and not evolving game to game, quarter to quarter, drive to drive or play to play.

One-possession losses are attributed to game management more than to players not making clutch plays at the end. Bad game plan, no adjustments, a lack of strong leadership — that is how one-possession losses pile up. You had the players to win. You didn't play chess correctly.

Todd Bowles does very little to inspire confidence in his teams, and Jason Licht should have known that when he elevated him. Licht's job is predicated on his hires being successful. Look at the most successful coaches in high-level sports and look for the key traits they exhibit. As a former high school head football, baseball and basketball coach, I can say with certainty that a coach's demeanor affects the game — 1,000 percent. If your players have no energy or are down — and every Buccaneers player has looked defeated since this point last season — a soft-spoken coach who mumbles to the media and makes excuses, instead of owning EVERYTHING, is a problem. The head coach is responsible for everybody underneath him. That applies to Todd Bowles, and it applies to Jason Licht.

Baker Mayfield is not the problem

So why is the quarterback the one taking the blame? A lot of people have put it on Baker Mayfield this year. After the contract standoff that ended with a three-year, $165 million extension — $150 million of it guaranteed — just before the opener, you can see why he would be viewed as the problem. The quarterback is the most important position in team sports. The QB touches the ball the most, QBs get paid the most, and QBs, for the most part, are the face of the franchise. So quarterbacks take the most blame when the team does not succeed.

Let me make this clear: Baker Mayfield is a WINNER. If it comes down to him destroying his body to get the victory, he will absolutely do that.

Mayfield has proven it time and time again. He proved it at Texas Tech by walking on. He proved it at Oklahoma by planting his flag in Columbus and going on to win the Heisman. He led Cleveland to its first playoff win since the 1994 season and became the star the Browns had been waiting on for years. Then came the season before Cleveland traded for Deshaun Watson, when his production dipped while he played hurt for much of the year.

That brings me to my point. Baker is an enigma. He can will teams to victory, and he does it leading the charge. On the flip side, Baker does not always listen to his body. He has admitted to playing injured, and when you are not even at 75 percent, it is very difficult to perform at the same level. When he is healthy, he has an arsenal of weapons at his disposal. When he is hurting, he is very limited.

Now let's lay out the facts on Baker's Tampa career. Last season, Mayfield completed 343 of 543 passes (63.2 percent) for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, with a 90.6 passer rating, plus 382 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. Those were his lowest numbers in his three Tampa seasons. But look at the first eight games of 2025, when Mayfield was in the middle of the national MVP conversation: a 98.1 passer rating, 1,919 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

This season's line has to be read with the injury attached: in four games around the thumb injury that cost him three weeks, Mayfield is 68 of 107 (63.6 percent) for 679 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, with 66 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. Read that record again. That is not the résumé of the problem in Tampa Bay.

The problem sits above the players

There is a real problem in Tampa. It is not the players, and it is not Baker Mayfield. They can be contributing factors at times, certainly — but the problem starts above them: with a head coach who cannot win the moments that decide one-score games, and with the front office that handed him the job, kept him in it, and cycled through the coordinators who made the offense go.

A final point to be made, and it may seem odd. I am a fan of Manchester United because the Glazers own the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Manchester United — one of the premier professional sports organizations in the world for DECADES. Since the 2010s, both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Red Devils have experienced extreme mediocrity, finishing below teams with less prestige and history. I stated earlier that the guy in charge is responsible for everything he manages, and the Glazers have done a poor job bringing in the right people.

Jason Licht lucked out getting Tom Brady and Gronk to enter the transfer portal before they called it quits for good. And he immediately lost all credibility by allowing personalities to interfere with his decision making. It is no surprise that Todd Bowles will no longer be the head coach. The only question is whether the Glazers keep Licht. The problems in Tampa start at the top: bring in a new GM, and a minority owner who wants to be involved with the operations and carries enough weight with his name that the best available coaches and free agents will want to come.

Many people are throwing Mike Tomlin's name out there — including myself this past offseason — but the more you think about it, you would just be replacing Todd Bowles with a better version of the same thing. The offense will not solve its issues, and regardless of how good the defense plays, the offense will let them down.

Sources

2026 team and player lines through seven games: Pro Football Reference; StatChasers; Sportradar · Mayfield contract (three years, $165 million, $150 million guaranteed): Tampa Bay Times · Brady–Arians timeline and Arians’ comments: Tampa Bay Times via NBC Sports · Bowles’ records with the Jets and Tampa Bay, including the one-score record: Pro Football Reference · Rushing-defense marks since 2019: Pewter Report · Super Bowl LV: NFL game record.

Cash Emerson Roper hosts Front Office Blueprint, a daily sports-business show. A former catcher and coach, he was head varsity football, baseball and basketball coach and has done strength-and-conditioning work with college and pro athletes.

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